CBRE: Hotel investments from €200 to €800 million
“There’s a huge demand for hotel real estate, but no supply”
Amsterdam, 27 January 2022 – The Dutch hotel market can look forward to a sharp increase in interest from investors, both national and international. The value of the transactions will more than double from €200 million last year to €800 million in 2022.
These figures are presented in Market Outlook 2022 published by CBRE Netherlands, a subsidiary of the listed company CBRE Group. With over 100,000 employees, it is the world’s largest real estate consultancy. In its annual Market Outlook, CBRE publishes and analyses the figures for the past year and provides a substantiated forecast for the coming year.
Strong recovery of investment market
There is still a demand for hotel investments. Consequently, the real estate prices of hotels, subject to location and target group, have been corrected only to a very limited extent. This is the opposite of what is happening on the high street. The hotel investment market is confident of a strong recovery and sees the disappointing hotel occupancy rates as a temporary effect that has already been taken into account.
“There’s a huge demand for hotel real estate, but no supply. Owners are afraid that they might have to stomach a large discount and that buyers are looking only for problematic situations. That is not the case. Early in 2022 we will see transactions that back this up, thereby encouraging sellers to proceed with sales,’’ says Jan Steinebach, Head of Hotels at CBRE.
Limited recovery of operating market
Since the start of 2020 the hotel sector has had to deal with one setback after another. And it is not over yet: after a relatively good summer and autumn, the number of overnight stays has fallen sharply again. Dependence on foreign tourists and business travellers remains high. Last year, because of air travel restrictions and a succession of new virus variants the number of overnight stays rose only slightly. Although there were more visitors from other continents than in 2020, the number still lags well behind the historical growth. Domestic tourists on staycation once again boosted the number of overnight stays last year, with the peripheral regions and The Hague - the only big city with a beach - being the main beneficiaries.
The persistently low influx of tourists is reflected clearly in the performance of hotel operators. The considerably lower occupancy rate is keeping room rates down, resulting in virtually the same income as in 2020. There are regional differences, however: the revenue per room in Amsterdam and Schiphol is down, while a cautious recovery can be seen in other cities.
Ban on new hotels drives real estate prices up
In the Netherlands there were very few hotel transactions last year, mainly small new builds and a few sale-and-lease-back deals. It is ironic that the City of Amsterdam’s ‘ban on new hotels’ has had the effect of driving prices up. “This affects the growth in supply. It has no effect on the demand for hotel rooms and on operations. But it creates a sort of scarcity in the hotel real estate market that has a positive effect, albeit a small one, on real estate prices”, according to Steinebach.
The reason for the sharp difference in growth from one region to another is that the target groups differ. Schiphol and Amsterdam depend greatly on intercontinental tourists and business travellers, whereas other cities focus on Dutch and European tourists. The recovery in those cities is likely to occur more rapidly because European countries are increasingly working together to keep the borders open. Outside Europe things are more complicated. Additionally, people are still reluctant to undertake intercontinental travel. They are in any event going to be less inclined to travel by air in the next few years, especially on business. The grip that COVID-19 has had on the hotel market for nearly two years is gradually being released. The vaccination rate is continuing to rise, especially in the western world - which is so important to the hotel market - and the growing number of continental/intercontinental agreements is making travel from one country to another easier. Nevertheless, the overnight stay figures will not approach those of 2019. In Amsterdam the recovery will certainly take until 2024. The main reason for this difference is the greater dependence on intercontinental and business travellers, who are expected to travel considerably less by air from now on.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), een Fortune 500- en S&P 500-bedrijf met het hoofdkantoor in Dallas, is 's werelds grootste advies- en beleggingsbureau voor commercieel vastgoed (in termen van de omzet in 2020). De organisatie heeft meer dan 100.000 medewerkers en bedient klanten in meer dan 100 landen. CBRE biedt strategisch advies en begeleiding bij de aan- en verkoop en aan- en verhuur van vastgoed, corporate services, property-, facility en projectmanagement, taxaties, (her)ontwikkeling, investment management en research & consulting. Bezoek onze websites www.cbre.nl en www.cbre.com.