Europe’s Most Climate Resilient Cities Revealed

Global real estate advisor, CBRE, has today published its ranking of European cities according to their resilience to the impacts of climate change. The report, ‘European City Sustainability Study 2024,’ evaluated the performance of 42 cities across Europe in relation to a number of factors, from transition risk, building performance standards and level of air pollution to future flood risks and ability to implement renewable energy.

The study provides real estate professionals and investors with insights to help understand different markets, the opportunities and challenges they face.

Out of 42 cities assessed, the study ranked the top 10 in terms of climate resiliency as:

• Amsterdam, The Netherlands
• Birmingham, United Kingdom
• Gothenburg, Sweden
• Helsinki, Finland
• London, United Kingdom
• Manchester, United Kingdom
• Oslo, Norway
• Paris, France
• Rotterdam, The Netherlands
• Stockholm, Sweden

Dragana Marina, Sustainability Research Lead, Continental Europe, CBRE commented: “By improving the understanding of Europe’s key cities in terms of climate readiness, we hope to galvanise not only the property industry and investors, but also broader stakeholders, to take note of the need to prepare against the worst effects of climate change. While many cities may regard themselves as being leaders, this survey holds some surprises and warns against complacency.”

A key finding of the study is that real estate exposure to climate risk varies significantly across Europe, as does the challenge to decarbonise the built environment, which accounts for 30% of carbon emissions globally.

Within the study, there were three primary categories upon which each city was assessed:

• Transition risk: the risks to business associated with societal and economic shifts towards a lower-carbon future
• Physical climate risk: the particular city’s vulnerability to climate change
• Mitigation and Adaptation Measures: the city’s ability to implement recommended environmental initiatives to limit climate change

“We expect markets demonstrating greater resilience to transition and physical risk to increasingly attract investment and benefit from a halo effect on property values and occupier demand,” said Ludovic Chambe, Head of ESG & Sustainability Services, Continental Europe at CBRE. “However, as investors embrace tools to better assess market level climate risk, it is important to remember that opportunities are abundant beyond the most resilient markets. With the right due diligence, less climate resilient markets can provide rich opportunities for value-add investment in assets on the journey to net zero and adapting to physical hazards.” 

According to the study, the ten most resilient cities have a number of factors in common, providing a useful roadmap for other European markets to consider.

Transition risk

• Over half have city level net zero carbon targets earlier than 2050.
• Over half have prime capital values higher than the sample median, making relative refurbishment costs lower.
• Over half have some degree of Minimum Energy Efficiency regulation preventing the lease of energy inefficient stock.

Physical climate risk:

• Most have lower historic damages from climatic hazards than the sample average and a low future flood risk assessment.
• Half have low baseline water stress.
• Almost all have air pollution lower than sample average.

Mitigation and adaptation measures:

• All have increased use of renewable energy over the past five years.
• Most have more than 20% of their total office buildings certified.

Marina concluded: “Under our analysis, markets that set more ambitious targets and introduce environmental regulation are more resilient to climate risks. Likewise, markets at threat from physical risks, which have invested in defense systems and adaptation early are more resilient. In terms of mitigating climate change, the generation of renewable electricity and use for building heating is one of the most significant steps a market can make. This provides lessons for markets hoping to become more resilient to climate risks where there remains a huge opportunity to make an impact.”