Property investment has fallen significantly

Write-downs, the recalibration of investment strategies and the search for a new price level have all resulted in a historically low volume of investment in commercial real estate, which fell to €3.2 billion in the first half of 2023. This represents a decline of 60% since last year. This is reported by CBRE Netherlands – part of the listed CBRE Group, the world’s largest real estate consultancy – based on figures for the first half of 2023 that were presented today.

CBRE expects investment activity to pick up in the second half of 2023, as inflation falls, interest rates stabilise and there is more clarity and transparency around the new price level in the real estate market. However, this will occur at different rates. Transaction volumes for 2023 show that the investment market is already starting to pick up in logistics and retail real estate, and to a lesser extent in office real estate. However, volumes remain depressed in residential, healthcare and hotel investments. 

Recovery
CBRE reports that compared to investment volume in Q1 (€1.4 billion), investment volume in Q2 was up by a quarter, to reach a level of €1.8 billion. 

The pace of the recovery will be determined firstly by the extent to which the market has accepted the new price equilibrium and adjusted its books accordingly, and secondly by the extent to which new investment capital comes into the market and is accepted by vendors at the new price level. In the first six months of 2023, commercial real estate write-downs ranged from 7.5% to 40%. 

Over the next six to nine months, CBRE expects this trend to spread to more sectors every month. A new price equilibrium seems likely to be achieved across all sectors over the coming months, and the expectation of some (moderate) compression in initial yields in the medium term will give investors a strong incentive to enter the market. The extent to which this will be met with supply-side price acceptance will vary between sectors.